Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Federal Rent Aid Program is Selective

California's Contra-Costa Times investigated the federal program designed to aid renters in the current recession. While homeowners can stay in their homes for months without making mortgage payments and the Federal Government bends over backwards to help them residential renters are still finding it difficult to qualify for Federal aid.

Here's the Contra-Costa Times report:

"A federal stimulus program aimed at preventing tenants from being evicted because of the recession is arousing lots of interest but few are finding they qualify for aid.

The lead agency in distributing $3 million earmarked for Contra Costa has received 574 inquiries and 87 applications but has approved 16.

Most people who have expressed interest either earn too much or too little, said Jennifer Baha, director of program services with Shelter, Inc., in Martinez. The federal guidelines are clear: Applicants must be at or below 50 percent of the area median income but also must have an income of at least 120 percent of their rent.

"Many people are contacting us because they are desperate," Baha said. "But this isn't supposed to be long-term. You have to have a reasonable plan to get yourself out of your situation. You can't be unemployed and in an industry that is not currently hiring."

A Pittsburg medical billing clerk was one of the lucky 16. Arnold Burton, 49, lost his job in June, fell behind on his house payments and the bank foreclosed.

The grant program gave him $1,000 toward his December rent. Shelter, Inc. sent the money directly to the landlord. Burton said he used the money that would have gone to rent to pay PG&E bills, but he looked forward to covering his $1,062 rent in January.

Burton said he wants to stay in medical billing and plans to enroll at Los Medanos College to update his skills.

"I wantto get certification as a medical assistant and work for an office, hospital or a private practice," he said.

One unsuccessful applicant said he was told he was denied because he didn't have proof of previous income. Richmond resident Richard Langford, 50, has worked as a carpenter, handyman and landscaper and usually gets paid in cash. His initial appeal was rejected and he has filed a second.

Langford says he's behind on his $600 rent because work has fallen off this winter.

"I started getting behind four months ago and have never recovered," he said. "My mother has helped me with gifts. People are having a rough time of it."

Baja is aware of such problems.

"This program is not designed for everybody," he said. "HUD makes it clear that they have to be directly impacted by the economy. Some people need to realize that housing in California is too expensive."

Monday, December 14, 2009

U.S. Apartment Vacancy Rate Update

The U.S. apartment vacancy rate will remain weak according to this report from Reuters. This is good news for residential renters.

CBRE-EA, the market forecasting arm of real estate services company CB Richard Ellis, expects the U.S. apartment vacancy rate to fall to 7 percent in 2010, down from 7.3 percent in the third quarter and 7.4 percent in the second quarter 2009.

"Overall, the U.S. apartment market remains in uncharted waters with vacancies at high levels historically, amid continued job losses and a glut of housing for rent and for sale," Gleb Nechayev, CBRE-EA senior economist said. "While the economic outlook does call for job growth to resume next year, vacancy rates will remain at historically elevated levels in most markets."

The long-term vacancy rate for professionally managed U.S. apartments has been about 5 percent.

"We're a long way from that. It will be at least a couple of years before we move closely to a more normal level," Nechayev said.

The slump in demand has severely damaged the sector, which until last month had the highest delinquency rate among U.S. property types.

Apartment loan delinquencies rose to 7.4 percent in November, second only to hotels, which reached 7.8 percent, according to ratings agency Moody's Investors Services.

Apartments and hotels suffer downturns first, because of their short-term leases, but traditionally lead a rebound when an economy improves.
A glut of single-family homes and condominiums on the market has been a double-edged sword for apartment landlords, Nechayev said.

Lower home ownership and the reduced demand for houses has forced people to become renters, Nechayev said.

New households formed from immigration, divorce and graduation has helped counter the damaging effect from job losses.

"Without the growth in overall rental demand, the effect of job losses on apartments would be much more severe than it has been so far," Nechayev said.

But the housing supply will continue to compete with and mitigate demand for apartments, which actually has risen over the past two quarters he said.

CBRE-EA forecasts effective rents will drop to $1,147 in 2010, down 0.8 percent from the third quarter 2009.

Markets such Austin, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, Seattle, San Diego, and Washington D.C have reported more occupied than vacant apartments.

Landlords in those cities offered rent concessions to lure tenants or keep existing ones, Nechayev said.

CBRE-EA does not expect rents nationally to start growing in earnest until the second half of 2011. The average U.S. apartment rent has been falling for the past year, down to $1,156 in the third quarter.

"We still expect some weakness in rents and occupancy next year," Nechayev said. "All in all, 2010 should be a somewhat better year than 2009."

Thursday, December 10, 2009

American Dream 2: Default, Then Rent

We're not suggesting that homeowners default on their mortgages but this article from the Wall Street Journal offers some interesting possibilities:

PALMDALE, Calif. -- Schoolteacher Shana Richey misses the playroom she decorated with Glamour Girl decals for her daughters. Fireman Jay Fernandez misses the custom putting green he installed in his backyard.

But ever since they quit paying their mortgages and walked away from their homes, they've discovered that giving up on the American dream has its benefits.

Both now live on the 3100 block of Club Rancho Drive in Palmdale, where a terrible housing market lets them rent luxurious homes -- one with a pool for the kids, the other with a golf-course view -- for a fraction of their former monthly payments.

The housing bust has brought big changes to the 3100 block of Club Rancho Drive in Palmdale, California.

"It's just a better life. It really is," says Ms. Richey. Before defaulting on her mortgage, she owed about $230,000 more than the home was worth.

People's increasing willingness to abandon their own piece of America illustrates a paradoxical change wrought by the housing bust: Even as it tarnishes the near-sacred image of home ownership, it might be clearing the way for an economic recovery.

Thanks to a rare confluence of factors -- mortgages that far exceed home values and bargain-basement rents -- a growing number of families are concluding that the new American dream home is a rental.

Some are leaving behind their homes and mortgages right away, while others are simply halting payments until the bank kicks them out. That's freeing up cash to use in other ways.

Ms. Richey's family of five used some of the money to buy season tickets to Disneyland, and plans to take a Carnival cruise to Mexico in March. Mr. Fernandez takes his girlfriend out to dinner more frequently. "We're saving lots of money," Ms. Richey says.

The U.S home-ownership rate has charted its biggest decline in more than two decades, falling to 67.6% as of September from a peak of 69.2% in 2004. And more renters are on the way: Credit firm Experian and consulting firm Oliver Wyman forecast that "strategic defaults" by homeowners who can afford to pay are likely to exceed one million in 2009, more than four times 2007's level.

Stiffing the bank is bad for peoples' credit, and bad for banks. Swelling defaults could also mean more losses for taxpayers through bank bailouts.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities expect 21 million U.S. households to end up owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth by the end of 2010. If one in five of those households defaults, the losses to banks and investors could exceed $400 billion. As a proportion of the economy, that's roughly equivalent to the losses suffered in the savings-and-loan debacle of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

The flip side of those losses, though, is massive debt relief that can help offset the pain of rising unemployment and put cash in consumers' pockets.

For the 4.8 million U.S. households that data provider LPS Applied Analytics estimates haven't paid their mortgages in at least three months, the added cash flow could amount to about $5 billion a month -- an injection that in the long term could be worth more than the tax breaks in the Obama administration's economic-stimulus package.

"It's a stealth stimulus," says Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a consulting firm specializing in real estate and the California economy. "The quicker these people shed their debts, the faster the economy is going to heal and move forward again."

As the stigma of abandoning a mortgage wanes, the Obama administration could face an uphill battle in its effort to keep people in their homes by pressuring banks to cut their mortgage payments. Some analysts argue that's not always the right approach, particularly if it prevents people from shedding onerous debts and starting afresh.

"The effect of these programs is often to lead homeowners to make decisions that are not in their economic best interests," says Brent White, a law professor at the University of Arizona who has studied mortgage defaults.

Few places in the U.S. were better suited to attract true believers in home ownership than Palmdale. A farming community that expanded in the 1950s to accommodate the aerospace industry around nearby Edwards Air Force Base, the city more than doubled its population from 1990 to the present as it became the final frontier for Los Angeles-area workers looking to buy.

About half of Palmdale's 147,000 residents endure a daily commute that can extend to two hours or more one way. In return, they get a homestead in a high-desert locale of haunting beauty, with Joshua trees dotting the landscape, and real-estate developments locked into a master grid of streets with anonymous names such as Avenue O-8 or Avenue M-4.

The 3100 block of Club Rancho Drive, built by Beazer Homes mostly in 2002, captures the essence of Palmdale's appeal. Winding along the southern edge of the Rancho Vista golf course just south of Avenue N-8, its spacious homes, verdant lawns and imported birch and sycamore trees exude a sense of middle-class tranquility.

Club Rancho became a solid community of owner-occupiers, many of whom stretched their finances to the limit. As of the end of 2007, total mortgage debt attached to the 13 houses on the block for which records are available had reached $4.5 million.

Fast-forward to the end of 2009, and the picture changes radically. Thanks to a 50% drop in home prices, at least two owners on the block now owe between $60,000 and $160,000 more on their mortgages than their houses are worth. Four more homes have already passed through foreclosure into the hands of new owners.

In the process, the block's total mortgage debt has fallen 37%, to $2.7 million.

Much of Club Rancho also has converted to rentals, a shift mirrored across Palmdale. Five homes on the 3100 block are now occupied by renters, up from only two in 2007. In the past six months, at least three families have moved into those rentals after walking away from other homes.

Ms. Richey, the teacher, arrived in Palmdale in 1999. In 2004, she and her husband, Timothy, bought a two-story home on Caspian Drive, near Avenue O-8, with a no-down-payment loan. They took pride in the amenities they installed: a powder room with granite countertops, a backyard pool and play area, and the purple-and-turquoise fantasy playroom upstairs for their three daughters.

But the value of the house plunged to less than $200,000 in 2009. Their $430,000 mortgage, with its $3,700 monthly payment, began to look more like an unwanted burden. By May, amid troubles getting tenants for two rental properties she also owned, Ms. Richey decided the time had come to cut a deal with America's Servicing Co., a unit of Wells Fargo & Co. servicing the mortgage on the house.

After three months of wrangling, she says she finally received a modification approval. The new monthly payment: about $3,300, far more than she had hoped. A Wells Fargo spokesman confirmed the bank offered Ms. Richey a modification under the Obama administration's Making Home Affordable program, and said, "The Richeys turned down the lowest payment we could offer."

Ms. Richey and her husband had already been working on Plan B -- exploring the neighborhood's "For Rent" signs.

On one trip, they drove by the house at 3152 Club Rancho Drive. It was bigger than their house on Caspian, had a pool with three waterfalls, and boasted a cascading staircase that Ms. Richey says she could picture her daughters descending on prom night. The rent was $2,195 a month.

The situation presented Ms. Richey with a quandary now facing more than 10 million U.S. homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth.

On one hand, walking away from her home would be easy. California is one of 10 states that largely prevent mortgage lenders from going after the other assets of borrowers who default. But she also had to consider the negatives. Her credit could be tarnished for years and, perhaps most importantly, she feared her friends and neighbors might ostracize her.

"It was scary," she says, noting that people tended to keep such decisions to themselves for fear of being stigmatized. "It's still very hush-hush."

Tom Sobelman, whose family of four lives across the street from Ms. Richey, at 3127 Club Rancho Drive, sees mortgages as a moral as well as financial obligation. He's still paying the mortgage on an investment property he owns nearby, despite the fact that the rent is about $1,000 a month short of covering his costs.

Mr. Sobelman, 37, argues that people who choose to default are unfairly benefiting at the expense of taxpayers, who have put trillions of dollars at risk to bail out struggling banks. "All these people are gaming the system, and I'm paying for it," he says. "My kids are going to be paying it off."

Mr. Sobelman has plenty of company. In a recent study of people who owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth, economists Luigi Guiso, Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales found that about four out of five believe defaulting on a mortgage is morally wrong if one can afford to pay it. But they also found that the people become 82% more likely to say they'll default if they know someone else who defaulted.

Moral or not, the individuals who want to shed their mortgage debts are quickly transforming the Palmdale real-estate market.

Adam Robbins, who runs the local Realty World franchise and manages about 80 properties, says about 90% of his prospective tenants are people in Ms. Richey's situation. So he and other rental managers are loosening rules to accept people who have been through foreclosures.

"Those are all good people," he says. "They just got bad loans or bought at the wrong time."

Ms. Richey and her family made the move to Club Rancho Drive in August, when she was already several months behind on the mortgage. With Mr. Robbins's help, she recently sold the house on Caspian Drive for $195,000, money that the bank will accept to settle the $430,000 mortgage debt. She's also considering walking away from the mortgages on her two rental properties.

Showing a visitor the personal touches in her new home, including a $1,800 dining set she bought with some of her newly available income, she notes the advantages of being a renter rather than an owner.

"You take a risk for the American dream," she says. "I don't have to worry about paying property tax, homeowners' insurance, the landscaping, cleaning the pool or any repairs."

Others on Ms. Richey's block have made similar moves. Mr. Fernandez, the firefighter, moved into 3139 in July, after stopping the $4,800 monthly payments on the home he owned around the corner on Champion Way.

Mr. Fernandez says he made four attempts to modify the larger of the two mortgages on his home, which add up to $423,000. Ultimately, he was offered a monthly payment that, together with back taxes, was higher than what he had been paying. Today he's working to partially reimburse his lenders, IndyMac Bank (now OneWest Bank) and American First Credit Union, by selling the home, which he expects to fetch about $300,000.

A spokeswoman for OneWest Bank said the bank "offered Mr. Fernandez the lowest payment possible under the [Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.] loan modification guidelines." A spokesman for American First said the company always seeks to help clients stay in their homes.

With an income of about $8,300 a month and a rent of $2,200, Mr. Fernandez says he now has the wherewithal to do things he couldn't when he was stretching to pay the mortgage. He recently went to concerts by Rob Thomas and Mat Kearney. He also kept his black BMW 6 Series coupe, which has payments of about $700 a month.

"I don't know if I'll buy another house again, because it's such a huge headache," he says.

—Ruth Simon contributed to this article.
Write to Mark Whitehouse at mark.whitehouse@wsj.com